Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
